
It seems unthinkable, but for the first time in human history, ice is on course to disappear entirely from the North Pole this year.
The disappearance of the Arctic sea ice, making it possible to reach the Pole sailing in a boat through open water, would be one of the most dramatic and worrying examples of the impact of global warming on the planet. Scientists say the ice at 90 degrees north may well have melted away by the summer.
My thoughts are that the North Pole will melt out in 2008 but we won't beat last year's sea-ice minimum.
... "I'd say it's even-odds whether the North Pole melts out," said Dr Serreze. ...
... "Indeed, for the Arctic as a whole, the melt season started with even more thin ice than in 2007, hence concerns that we may even beat last year's sea-ice minimum." ...
For most people, this will epitomize the phrase "Out of sight, out of mind." After all, only a vanishingly small number of people ever visit the polar regions, and since most of them are scientists it is all to easy to dismiss them as eggheads, and dismiss their observations.
Until drought and famine hits the heartland, most Americans will find it easy to just believe that this is a media hype. Yet once it does, those same people who have their heads stuck in the sand today will be the most vociferous in their cries to have someone take care of the situation, and demand that someone be held accountable for the lack of foresight and preparation.
I at least partially agree with npat here (a first I know), I don't think that the ice will beat last year's minimum or even close.
Also, the Antarctic ice is at a record high this year.
Here is the daily graph from NASA and it is not even close to last year's numbers.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg
Also, here is the record high Antarctic ice.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.south.jpg
The southern hemisphere ice is almost 1.5 million square km greater in extent than last year.
Here is the composite of the north and south together. It looks like we are at about the average globally.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
space guy, your graphs are about acres of ice cover. The problem isn't that there isn't a lot of icecover, it's that much of the North Pole the ice is thin "summer ice" and is expected to melt this summer, heating up the oceans even more, lee[omg i[ tje megative feedback loop (less ice reflecting back the sun, more warming because the oceans absorb what the ice refelects back, less ice by the end of the season, etc).
If that were the case then the rate of melting would be much higher than last year when supposedly there was all of this multiyear ice. Look at the rate of melting on the graph.
Also, record high ice is record high ice. That ice has to have a certain thickness to even show up as the waves would break it up.
got to say space guy i think you got it covered
this feels alot more like a seasonal shift for the earth than global catastrophe
maybe this has happened before we just were never there to see or record it like we are now
can anyone tell me if the earths orbit is moving into a phase where the southern hemisphere is going to be tilted farther than normal(away from the sun i mean)?
cause mild differences in tilt can have huge impacts like this
Important seed.
The Arctic warming and sea ice melting has potentially catastrophic downstream consequences for Greenland, Antarctic and tundra melting, sea level rises, species extinctions and mass human mortality.
That is why top US climate scientists such as Dr James Hansen (Head, NASA GISS) have demanded "negative CO2 emissions" to return the earth's atmospheric CO2 from a dangerous current level of about 385 ppm to a sustainable, safe level of less than 350 ppm (see: Man-made, CO2-driven Global Warming Science Information ).
The problem with today's scientist is that they are looking for government grants, as long as the liberals seek global warming, they will get the "scientific results" they want. Until the liberal government stops this sky is falling approach, we will not have an nonobjective view.
How, pray tell, does this liberal government give us a nonobjective view? You are referring to the United States of American government, right?
The political landscape doesn't look much better. Heads are in the sand for that as well.
Al Gore has 4 mansions. One of them in Tennessee uses 20 times the national average for a home. It uses over 20 KW a MONTH. This is to support THREE (3) staffers. It is OK though, he has bought 'carbon offsets' that makes his home "carbon neutral". If he just cut back on that energy pig he could really be doing something about the problem. However, he and his cronies are making money from selling these 'carbon credits'. As a broker he did get a discount. 100 percent off. He paid NOTHING for the carbon offsets. Since it costs him nothing, he has nothing to gain from improving the situation.
This problem was brought to his attention last fall. He promised to do something about it. He did, the energy use went UP 10%!!!
Why are you turning a serious climate and science issue into a political issue? This "politicalization of science" has been part of the problem. Are you some kind of fundamentalist neocon? You're encouraging excatly what Allan talked aoubt above.
You're encouraging excatly what Allan talked aoubt above.
That's about as off base as I've ever heard. What in the world am I encouraging? I'm stating a situation, not encouraging anything, at least in that comment. : )
You may know what's going on with the planet, but I know what's going on with your rights. And I'll tell you this, your rights and liberties are going to be (being) changing way before any planetary shift is going to drastically effect your life, and if you think climate change has already done that more than the political landscape has affected you, you haven't been paying attention.
Are you some kind of fundamentalist neocon?
Priceless, I was Ron Paul's Virginia State Coordinator for a while, about as far from a Neocon as you can get. What in the world's going on in your head? You've misinterpreted something along the way.
Just an idea to ponder on: What chance do you see in changing the global response to climate change, be it man made or not, without changing the political situation?
Ok, so you don't like Al Gore. Good for you. Now, explain what your comment had to do with this discussion?
If I tell you to duck because you're about to get hit in the head with a baseball, would you ignore me because when I was a kid I beaned someone?
It seems unthinkable, but for the first time in human history, ice is on course to disappear entirely from the North Pole this year.
This line troubles me. We've been recording temperatures and the weather for a century and a half more or less. Last year the world temperature was one degree lower than 2006. We have seen a very cool spring and early summer in the Northern climes. I've read some historical documents that discussed a previous warming trend (I wish I had a link) that destroyed the Ice Bridge to Greenland.
A representative of an organization I'm associated with was invited to a gathering of scientists to discuss global warming-he said the only thing he got out of the gathering was that everyone disagrees on what's happening with the environment. I think curbing pollution is always a good thing, but I'm not convinced that the scientists have a real handle on what is 'Global Warming' and what the effects are/will be.
It is complete bull@!$%#. During the Holocene maximum about 8,000 years ago temperatures were well above today's and the oceans were about a meter and a half higher. That is why Miami is built on top of a coral reef.
...so there is no problem with the ice cap melting?
...so there is no problem with the ice cap melting?
If the entire arctic ice cap melted it would not increase the level of the oceans one iota. There is a very interesting thing going on right now as the trade off between the arctic and antarctic ice levels. The south is at a record high and in the north we are not going to reach the low level of last year. Interesting that is. Follow the links that I provided above to the NASA data. Do you understand how to read the graphs?
Who do you work for or are you like this for free?
Spooky
I am one of these stupid people that do this for free. I do engineering work for NASA, commercial space enterprise and a little DoD work but all of this is on my own time and resources.
The reason I think this year's Arctic sea-ice minimum extent won't beat last year's is that last year's was very low (vs 1979-2000 avg and all other years in 1979-2007 sea-ice record).
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Sep/N_200709_area.txt
First it was "We're moving into a new Ice Age!" Now it's "We're moving into a period of Global Warming!" When are climatologists going to finally admit that the Earth is just too big of a system for us to understand. We can't even predict accurately how many hurricanes and their intensity from year to year. How can we expect to be able to predict what the mean temperature of the Earth will be 25 years from now. In some places, glaciers are receding, in others they are growing. I'm sure that the Arctic and Antarctic have gone through many periods of growth and loss of icepack.
Earth's atmosphere is not too big of a system for us to see and predict that atmospheric CO2 will continue to rise for years, decades and centuries ahead. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html
The carbon dioxide data ,..., Mauna Loa constitute the longest record of direct measurements of CO2 in the atmosphere. They were started by C. David Keeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in March of 1958 at a facility of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Keeling, 1976).
The funny thing about threads like these is that I am ooh so certain that all those global warming deniers will once in the future tell their grandchildren that they were so concerned and did all they could to avoid it, but hey, what could a single person make a change.
How will this affect the price of the 'slurpie' at 7-11, ?
well as long as we all understand whats important here
LOL
I do like my Slurpie!
maybe we could fashion a new ice cap useing slushie machines for the north pole
I FIXED GLOBAL WARMING
IM A GENIUS WOOT
what do you think red or blue?
Well we are talking about the NORTH pole so blue...........Duh!
LoL
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